Impact of Comorbidity on Fatality Rate of Patients with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
Identifieur interne : 000D44 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000D43; suivant : 000D45Impact of Comorbidity on Fatality Rate of Patients with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
Auteurs : Ya-Min Yang [Taïwan] ; Chen-Yang Hsu [Taïwan] ; Chao-Chih Lai [Taïwan] ; Ming-Fang Yen [Taïwan] ; Paul S. Wikramaratna [Royaume-Uni] ; Hsiu-Hsi Chen [Taïwan] ; Tsung-Hsi Wang [Taïwan]Source :
- Scientific Reports [ 2045-2322 ] ; 2017.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Comorbidité, Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient, Facteurs de risque, Femelle, Humains, Infections à coronavirus (mortalité), Infections à coronavirus (virologie), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Mortalité, Mâle, Sujet âgé, Surveillance de la population.
- MESH :
- mortalité : Infections à coronavirus.
- virologie : Infections à coronavirus.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus.
- Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Comorbidité, Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient, Facteurs de risque, Femelle, Humains, Mortalité, Mâle, Sujet âgé, Surveillance de la population.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections.
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections.
- virology : Coronavirus Infections.
- Adult, Aged, Comorbidity, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Mortality, Population Surveillance, Risk Factors.
Abstract
To date, 1841 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection have been reported worldwide, with 652 deaths. We used a publically available case line list to explore the effect of relevant factors, notably underlying comorbidities, on fatal outcome of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases up to the end of October 2016. A Bayesian Weibull proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the effect of comorbidity, age, epidemic period and sex on the fatality rate of MERS cases and its variation across countries. The crude fatality rate of MERS cases was 32.1% (95% credibility interval (CI): 29.9%, 34.3%). Notably, the incremental change of daily death rate was most prominent during the first week since disease onset with an average increase of 13%, but then stabilized in the remaining two weeks when it only increased 3% on average. Neither sex, nor country of infection were found to have a significant impact on fatality rates after taking into account the age and comorbidity status of patients. After adjusting for age, epidemic period, MERS patients with comorbidity had around 4 times the risk for fatal infection than those without (adjusted hazard ratio of 3.74 (95% CI: 2.57, 5.67)).
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-10402-1
PubMed: 28900101
PubMed Central: 5596001
Affiliations:
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We used a publically available case line list to explore the effect of relevant factors, notably underlying comorbidities, on fatal outcome of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases up to the end of October 2016. A Bayesian Weibull proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the effect of comorbidity, age, epidemic period and sex on the fatality rate of MERS cases and its variation across countries. The crude fatality rate of MERS cases was 32.1% (95% credibility interval (CI): 29.9%, 34.3%). Notably, the incremental change of daily death rate was most prominent during the first week since disease onset with an average increase of 13%, but then stabilized in the remaining two weeks when it only increased 3% on average. Neither sex, nor country of infection were found to have a significant impact on fatality rates after taking into account the age and comorbidity status of patients. After adjusting for age, epidemic period, MERS patients with comorbidity had around 4 times the risk for fatal infection than those without (adjusted hazard ratio of 3.74 (95% CI: 2.57, 5.67)).</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zaki, Am" uniqKey="Zaki A">AM Zaki</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Boheemen, S" uniqKey="Van Boheemen S">S van Boheemen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bestebroer, Tm" uniqKey="Bestebroer T">TM Bestebroer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Osterhaus, Ad" uniqKey="Osterhaus A">AD Osterhaus</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fouchier, Ra" uniqKey="Fouchier R">RA Fouchier</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="De Groot, Rj" uniqKey="De Groot R">RJ de Groot</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Memish, Za" uniqKey="Memish Z">ZA 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uniqKey="Lee D">DS Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Christakis, Na" uniqKey="Christakis N">NA Christakis</name></author><author><name sortKey="Barabasi, Al" uniqKey="Barabasi A">AL Barabasi</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Royston, P" uniqKey="Royston P">P Royston</name></author><author><name sortKey="Parmar, Mk" uniqKey="Parmar M">MK Parmar</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Reuss, A" uniqKey="Reuss A">A Reuss</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gulland, A" uniqKey="Gulland A">A Gulland</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Vaida, F" uniqKey="Vaida F">F Vaida</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, R" uniqKey="Xu R">R Xu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lunn, Dj" uniqKey="Lunn D">DJ Lunn</name></author><author><name sortKey="Thomas, A" uniqKey="Thomas A">A Thomas</name></author><author><name sortKey="Best, N" uniqKey="Best N">N Best</name></author><author><name sortKey="Spiegelhalter, D" uniqKey="Spiegelhalter D">D Spiegelhalter</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>Taïwan</li></country></list><tree><country name="Taïwan"><noRegion><name sortKey="Yang, Ya Min" sort="Yang, Ya Min" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Ya-Min" last="Yang">Ya-Min Yang</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Chen, Hsiu Hsi" sort="Chen, Hsiu Hsi" uniqKey="Chen H" first="Hsiu-Hsi" last="Chen">Hsiu-Hsi Chen</name><name sortKey="Hsu, Chen Yang" sort="Hsu, Chen Yang" uniqKey="Hsu C" first="Chen-Yang" last="Hsu">Chen-Yang Hsu</name><name sortKey="Lai, Chao Chih" sort="Lai, Chao Chih" uniqKey="Lai C" first="Chao-Chih" last="Lai">Chao-Chih Lai</name><name sortKey="Wang, Tsung Hsi" sort="Wang, Tsung Hsi" uniqKey="Wang T" first="Tsung-Hsi" last="Wang">Tsung-Hsi Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Tsung Hsi" sort="Wang, Tsung Hsi" uniqKey="Wang T" first="Tsung-Hsi" last="Wang">Tsung-Hsi Wang</name><name sortKey="Yen, Ming Fang" sort="Yen, Ming Fang" uniqKey="Yen M" first="Ming-Fang" last="Yen">Ming-Fang Yen</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Wikramaratna, Paul S" sort="Wikramaratna, Paul S" uniqKey="Wikramaratna P" first="Paul S." last="Wikramaratna">Paul S. 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